Modeling codling moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) phenology and predicting egg hatch in apple orchards of the Maule Region, Chile

Studies were conducted in the Maule Region to characterize the phenology of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) The Predictive Extension Timing Estimator (PETE) and a logistic phenological model were validated with eight data sets of cumulative moth catches in sex pheromone (PH) and kairomone-baited traps and the cumulative occurrence of fruit injuries from apple (Malus domestica Borkh.) orchards during the 2009-2011 seasons. Second, the start of egg hatch was predicted from the first sustained male and female moth catches (biofix) in traps baited with pear ester (PE), PE+acetic acid (AA), PE+PH, and PH alone. Both phenological models fit data well except that the logistic provided a better fit than the PETE model of the phenology of egg hatch of the codling moth in the first generation, with a difference of 11 d between models in the prediction of 50% egg hatch. No significant difference was found between biofix dates established for males using either PH or PE+PH lures or for the biofix date based on female catches with PE+AA or PH+PE. The biofix established with the sustained female catch occurred nearly 11 d later than the male-based biofix. The use of a female biofix provided on average a 4-d improvement in the prediction of first egg hatch compared with the traditional use of a male biofix, but this difference was not significant. The use of PE+AA lures increased the proportion of cases when a female-based biofix could be established compared with the use of the PH+PE lure.